Sunday, August 30, 2009

Forex lacks hard data

Unlike other markets, there is little data available for Forex. For example, the annual BIS numbers that are commonly referenced when you hear “3 Trillion per day” turnover is conducted by survey . The institutions that are surveyed have no reason to lie, but they also have no reason to be 100% transparent. The problem, like the problem with fraud, is not the honest bankers who report, but those who don’t, who have something to hide in off-balance sheet transactions. Other markets have hard facts, verifiable data. Other exchanges publish similar data, because they are required, but more importantly, because they have it.

Only each Forex counterparty has access to his own data, and many of them are reluctant to release it. For example, Forex brokers could publish statistics:

* Number of positive accounts for the day, week, month, year
* Average percent gain or loss for each account
* How many accounts are profitable after 1 year


The question is why don’t they, why is data like this unavailable anywhere, in stark contract to non-forex rivals where it is possible to obtain overwhelming amounts of data on the performance of mutual funds .

Why is there no central database where traders and customers can log onto and verify authenticity, receive economic data in a standardized format, including performance information?

This is a regulatory question, but in the context of Forex, the answer is that there is no reason for the counterparties to divulge such information without any tangible benefit. Why should they open their books, when much of their business is based on perception?

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