Forex Market Background

The global marketplace has changed dramatically over the past several years. New investment strategies are becoming more important in order to minimize risk, as well as to maintain high portfolio returns. Among the most rewarding of the markets opening up to traders is the Foreign Exchange market. Identifiable trading patterns, as well as comparatively low margin requirements, have rewarding trading opportunities for many.

In contrast to the world’s stock markets, foreign exchange is traded without the constraints of a central physical exchange. Transactions are instead conducted via telephone or online. With this transaction structure as its foundation, the Foreign Exchange Market has become by far the largest marketplace in the world. Average volume in foreign exchange exceeds $1.5 trillion per day versus only $25 billion per day traded on the New York Stock Exchange. This high volume is advantageous from a trading standpoint because transactions can be executed quickly and with low transaction costs (i.e., a small bid/ask spread).

As a result, foreign exchange trading has long been recognized as a superior investment opportunity by major banks, multinational corporations and other institutions. Today, this market is more widely available to the individual trader than ever before.

Spot foreign exchange is always traded as one currency in relation to another. So a trader who believes that the dollar will rise in relation to the Euro, would sell EURUSD. That is, sell Euros and buy US dollars

Spot Forex versus Currency Futures

Many traders have made the switch from currency futures to spot foreign exchange ("forex") trading. Spot foreign exchange offers better liquidity and generally a lower cost of trading than currency futures. Banks and brokers in spot foreign exchange can quote markets 24 hours a day. Furthermore, the spot foreign exchange market is not burdened by exchange and NFA ("National Futures Association") fees, which are generally passed on to the customer in the form of higher commissions. For these reasons, virtually all professional traders and institutions conduct most of their foreign exchange dealing in the spot forex market, not in currency futures.

The mechanics of trading spot forex are similar to those of currency futures. The most important initial difference is the way in which currency pairs are quoted. Currency futures are always quoted as the currency versus the US dollar. In Spot forex, some currencies are quoted this way, while others are quoted as the US dollar versus the currency. For example, in spot forex, EURUSD is quoted the same way as Euro futures. In other words, if the Euro is strengthening, EURUSD will rise just as Euro futures will rise. On the other hand, USDCHF is quoted as US dollars with respect to Swiss Francs, the opposite of Swiss Franc futures. So if the Swiss Franc strengthens with respect to the US dollar, USDCHF will fall, while Swiss Franc futures will rise. The rule in spot forex is that the first currency shown is the currency that is being quoted in terms of direction. For example, "EUR" in EURUSD and "USD" in USDCHF is the currency that is being quoted

Technical Analysis:

Technical Analysis is probably the most common and successful means of making trading decisions and analyzing forex and commodities markets.

Technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis in that technical analysis is applied only to the price action of the market, ignoring fundamental factors. As fundamental data can often provide only a long-term or "delayed" forecast of exchange rate movements, technical analysis has become the primary tool with which to successfully trade shorter-term price movements, and to set stop loss and profit targets.

Technical analysis consists primarily of a variety of technical studies, each of which can be interpreted to generate buy and sell signals or to predict market direction.

Controlling Risk

Controlling risk is one of the most important ingredients of successful trading. While it is emotionally more appealing to focus on the upside of trading, every trader should know precisely how much he is willing to lose on each trade before cutting losses, and how much he is willing to lose in his account before ceasing trading and re-evaluating.

Risk will essentially be controlled in two ways: 1) by exiting losing trades before losses exceed your pre-determined maximum tolerance (or "cutting losses"), and 2) by limiting the "leverage" or position size you trade for a given account size.

Cutting Losses

Too often, the beginning trader will be overly concerned about incurring losing trades. He therefore lets losses mount, with the "hope" that the market will turn around and the loss will turn into a gain.

Almost all successful trading strategies include a disciplined procedure for cutting losses. When a trader is down on a positions, many emotions often come into play, making it difficult to cut losses at the right level. The best practice is to decide where losses will be cut before a trade is even initiated. This will assure the trader of the maximum amount he can expect to lose on the trade.

The other key element of risk control is overall account risk. In other words, a trader should know before he begins his trading endeavor how much of his account he is willing to lose before ceasing trading and re-evaluating his strategy. If you open an account with $2,000, are you willing to lose all $2,000? $1,000? As with risk control on individual trades, the most important discipline is to decide on a level and stick with it.

Determining Position Size

Before beginning any trading program, an assessment should be made of the maximum account loss that is likely to occur over time, per lot (see "Drawdown" in "Glossary of Terms"). For example, assume you have determined that your worse case loss on any trade is 30 pips. That translates into approximately $300 per $100,000 position size. Further assume that the $100,000 position size is equal to one lot. Five consecutive losing trades would result in a loss of $1,500 (5 x $300); a difficult period but not to be unexpected over the long run. For a $10,000 account trading one lot, this translates into a 15% loss. Therefore, even though it may be possible to trade 5 lots or more with a $10,000 account, this analysis suggests that the resulting "drawdown" would be too great (75% or more of the account value would be wiped out).

Any trader should have a sense of this maximum loss per lot, and then determine the amount he wishes to trade for a given account size that will yield tolerable drawdowns.

Definitions

Ask: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to sell. Same as "Offer".

Bid: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to buy.

Bid/Ask Spread (or "Spread"): The distance, usually in pips, between the Bid and Ask price. A tighter spread is better for the trader.

Cost of Carry (also "Interest" or "Premium"): The cost, often quoted in terms of dollars or pips per day, of holding an open position.

Currency Futures: Futures contracts traded on an exchange, most typically the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ("CME"). Always quoted in terms of the currency value with respect to the US Dollar. Parameters of the futures contract are standardized by the exchange.

Drawdown: The magnitude of a decline in account value, either in percentage or dollar terms, as measured from peak to subsequent trough. For example, if a trader's account increased in value from $10,000 to $20,000, then dropped to $15,000, then increased again to $25,000, that trader would have had a maximum drawdown of $5,000 (incurred when the account declined from $20,000 to $15,000) even though that trader's account was never in a loss position from inception.

Fundamental Analysis: Macro or strategic assessments of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the price action itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.

Leverage: The amount, expressed as a multiple, by which the notional amount traded exceeds the margin required to trade. For example, if the notional amount traded (also referred to as "lot size" or "contract value") is $100,000 dollars and the required margin is $2,000, the trader can trade with 50 times leverage ($100,000/$2,000).

Limit: An order to buy at a specified price when the market moves down to that price, or to sell at a specified price when the market moves up to that price.

Liquidity: A function of volume and activity in a market. It is the efficiency and cost effectiveness with which positions can be traded and orders executed. A more liquid market will provide more frequent price quotes at a smaller bid/ask spread.

Margin: The amount of funds required in a clients account in order to open a position or to maintain an open position. For example, 1% margin means that $1,000 of funds on deposit are required for a $100,000 position.

Margin Call: A requirement by the broker to deposit more funds in order to maintain an open position. Sometimes a "margin call" means that the position which does not have sufficient funds on deposit will simply be closed out by the broker. This procedure allows the client to avoid further losses or a debit account balance.

Market Order: An order to buy at the current Ask price.

Offer: Price at which broker/dealer is willing to sell. Same as "Ask".

Pip: The smallest price increment in a currency. Often referred to as "ticks" in the futures markets. For example, in EURUSD, a move from .9015 to .9016 is one pip. In USDJPY, a move from 128.51 to 128.52 is one pip.

Premium (also "Interest" or "Cost of Carry"): The cost, often quoted in terms of dollars or pips per day, of holding an open position.

Spot Foreign Exchange: Often referred to as the "interbank" market. Refers to currencies traded between two counterparties, often major banks. Spot Foreign Exchange is generally traded on margin and is the primary market that this website is focused on. Generally more liquid and widely traded than currency futures, particularly by institutions and professional money managers.

Stop: An order to buy at the market only when the market moves up to a specific price, or to sell at the market only when the market moves down to a specific price.

Technical Analysis: Analysis applied to the price action of the market to develop trading decisions, irrespective of fundamental factors. Below are the most common technical studies. Click to view a description

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4200 figure. European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi reiterated the central bank expects inflation to remain low over the coming year and will “do everything it takes to prevent it from rising.” He also indicatyed the ECB does not expect EMU-16 growth before the middle of 2010. Notably, EMU-16 GDP growth was -0.1% q/q, up from the record decline of -2.5% in the prior quarter. The euro moved higher partially on a reound in Chinese equity markets as the Shanghai Composite was up 4.5% today following recent flirtations with bear market territory. Other major news today focused on a warning from Germany’s finance ministry that the economic stabilization may not hold. It was reported last week that German GDP improved unexpectedly in the second quarter. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey improve to 4.2 from -7.5 in July while July leading economic indicators were up 0.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 576,000 from a revised 561,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 6.241 million, up from a revised 6.239 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Mizuno warned the domestic economic recovery could decelerate in the autumn, adding a sustained economic recovery would require “support from governments and central banks.” He said the BoJ should prepare Japan for an extended bout with deflation, warning that “price declines will ease only at a moderate pace” in the year starting April 2011. He also warned the central banks lacks the tools needed to “prop up prices and stimulate economic growth in the short term.” The yen’s direction is uncertain given the real possibility that economic growth may slow further. On the political front, a Democratic Party of Japan victory at the general election on 30 August could result in upward pressure on the yen and possibly more supply of Japanese government bonds. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.76% to close at ¥10,383.41. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and was supported around the ¥133.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.70 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.

Foreign Exchange

This short introduction explains the basics of trading Forex online, a brief explanation of the markets and the major benefits of trading Forex online. There are also two scenarios describing the implications of trading in a bear as well as a bull market to better acquaint you with some of the risks and opportunities of the largest and most liquid market in the world.

As an additional aid for those who are new to Forex, there is also a glossary at the bottom of this text which explains some of the terms used in connection with currency trading